The hottest sales volume is still at the freezing

The sales volume is still at the freezing point, and the gap between seven A-share construction machinery companies is divided

after a year of low tide, the construction machinery industry has recently ushered in a little warmth

with the policy adjustment turning to "steady growth", coupled with the acceleration of project approval by the national development and Reform Commission, this gives reasons for market optimism. However, the loosening of the policy remains at the expected level. In April, the sales data of various subdivisions of the construction machinery industry such as excavators and bulldozers continued to decline year-on-year and month on month, which also made it difficult for the previously pessimistic atmosphere to completely change

with the gradual effect of policy changes, can the construction machinery industry usher in an inflection point in June? For this issue, all parties in the industry disagree. However, what the industry can reach a consensus is that the performance of Listed Companies in the construction machinery industry will continue to differentiate in the second quarter, and the pattern of the strong will be further highlighted. The performance of some leading enterprises in the industry will be far better than that of other listed companies

continuous positive policies

in the past period of time, the construction machinery industry has been continuously positive policies. On May 23, the executive meeting of the State Council said, "we should promote the implementation of major projects in the 12th Five Year Plan on schedule, launch a number of major projects related to the overall situation and strong driving force, and speed up the preliminary work progress of the identified projects in the fields of railways, energy conservation and environmental protection, rural and western infrastructure, education and health, informatization, etc."

in addition, Premier Wen Jiabao's speech on "putting stable growth in a more important position" also made the market clear the expectation of policy improvement. What is more exciting is that the national development and Reform Commission has also accelerated the approval of new projects, and the iron and steel projects in Zhanjiang, Guangdong and Fangchenggang, Guangxi have been approved; Many airport construction projects such as Fuyuan in Heilongjiang, Shihezi in Xinjiang, Qingyang in Gansu and Jiangbei in Chongqing have also been approved

Chen Yaobang, an analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that with the government's increasing efforts to "stabilize growth", investment growth will recover in the future. Wu Huimin, an analyst of CICC, believes that under the premise of the continued bottoming out of the economy and the non loosening of the real estate policy, the expectation of accelerated infrastructure investment in the second quarter will continue to strengthen. At the same time, with the base number greatly reduced, the pull effect appears, and the sales growth rate of the construction machinery industry will gradually improve after May

under the guidance of good policies, the A-share market has responded recently. According to the author's statistics, from May 28 to 30, the machinery industry sector rose by 4.35%, ranking first among all sectors; Related stocks such as Shanhe intelligent (002097, closing price of 9.71 yuan), Xiamen Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (600815, closing price of 9.98 yuan), Liugong (000528, closing price of 13.86 yuan), XCMG machinery (000425, closing price of 15.27 yuan), Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, etc. rose sharply one after another

however, the revelry brought about by the policy did not last long. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission denied the so-called new round of economic stimulus plan and the "4trillion investment version 2.0" and other news. Du Ying, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, also said at the press conference of the State Information Office recently that the national economic growth should be more based on expanding domestic demand. Affected by this, the construction machinery industry fell continuously in the next three trading days. On May 30 and 31, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG machinery, Xiamen Industrial Group Co., Ltd. and Liugong all fell slightly; On June 1, Shanhe intelligent, which increased significantly in the early stage, fell 5.54%

sales are still at the freezing point

the "rumor refutation" of the national development and Reform Commission has poured a basin of cold water on the hot market. But what worries the market more is that the situation faced by the construction machinery industry is still not optimistic from the data of April. The author noticed the elimination method: turn on the oil pump. April was supposed to be the peak season for the sales of the construction machinery industry, but the sales data of each segment in that month were lower than expected. Both year-on-year and month on month declines

according to the data, in April 2012, the sales of excavators, truck cranes, loaders, bulldozers and rollers decreased by 41.88%, 52.24%, 23.85%, 33.56% and 54.57% year-on-year respectively, and decreased by 33.89%, 4.84%, 17.12%, 9.28% and 2.83% month on month respectively

Wangyiming, an analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that from the perspective of the survey, because the downstream construction is still insufficient, the dealer inventory still needs 2-3 months to digest, and the sales in May did not improve. Despite the return of infrastructure investment to the normal pace, there is still no sign of bottoming out in the new construction area of real estate. Due to the great impact of real estate investment on the sales of new equipment, it is expected that the sales data in the second quarter is still not optimistic

"the key is to see whether the policy expectation can improve". An analyst who declined to be named said that there was a process of policy transmission, and it was unlikely that the sales data would improve in the near future. With the gradual emergence of policy effects, can the construction machinery industry usher in an inflection point in June? The author's understanding shows that the industry has different views on the market in June, and the focus of disagreement is whether the downstream infrastructure can drive the sales data to pick up

Lu Juan, an analyst at Guotai Junan, believes that the important downstream of the construction machinery industry, such as real estate and large-scale infrastructure, is showing a warming trend. According to the statistics of proposed projects under construction, since March, the engineering design volume of infrastructure projects such as railways and highways has increased significantly, which is expected to drive the demand for construction machinery in June, and the industry fundamentals are expected to be significantly improved in June

Wang Yiming believes that the growth rate of real estate investment and new construction area fell sharply from January to April. The government still emphasizes "stable and strict implementation of the real estate market regulation policy", and it is expected that the real estate policy will not be relaxed in the short term. At present, real estate enterprises are most concerned about how to de stocking. Before de stocking is basically completed, the new company is not willing to start manufacturing lightweight and high-performance 3D printing components specifically for aerospace, energy, medical and semiconductor fields. The downturn in real estate investment will affect the time and intensity of the recovery of construction machinery sales

Lu Juan also said that the recovery of real estate sales data was fed back to the lag period of 3-6 months for real estate investment and construction, and the data of real estate investment and construction could not recover until July

Zhang Cheng, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, believes that the improvement of the existing policies is mainly reflected in the resumption of the original projects and less new projects; The current resumption of work is conducive to improving the profitability of existing equipment, but the incremental demand for equipment is limited; The resumption of railway construction can be understood as the railway construction is gradually returning to normal, but due to the slowdown in the pace of construction, the demand for construction machinery is limited

the above-mentioned securities analyst, who did not want to be named, said that every June to August is the traditional off-season of the industry, which is of little reference significance. If the sales data in September and October pick up, the industry will reverse, but it is basically certain that the flame retardant graphite EPS market in China's building external insulation market is monopolized by foreign brands

Zhang Cheng, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, also believes that in the short term, the demand pull of policy adjustment on the construction machinery industry will not change the downward trend month on month

the performance of listed companies may continue to differentiate

although it is still controversial when the inflection point of the industry will come, the layout of leading enterprises such as Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, etc. has become the consistent strategy of insiders

the author counted the annual reports of seven A-share construction machinery industry stocks (Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, XCMG machinery, Liugong, Xiamen Engineering Co., Ltd., Shanhe intelligent, Anhui Heli) last year and the first quarterly report of this year, and found that in 2011, these seven listed companies achieved growth in operating income and net profit, but the growth range is very different. Zoomlion Heavy Industry and Sany Heavy Industry increased their revenue by 43.89% and 49.54% year-on-year respectively last year, and their net profits increased by 72.88% and 54.02% respectively. XCMG machinery (28.03%) had the highest revenue growth rate, and Liugong (16.56%) had the highest net profit growth rate

in the first quarter, 10 In the window of software operating parameters, the boom of the medium-range machinery industry is poor, coupled with the high base last year, so the performance of relevant listed companies is not ideal. Nevertheless, Zoomlion and sany achieved growth in revenue and net profit. The above unnamed analyst told the author that in the long run, this differentiation of the industry may continue. The products and services provided by leading enterprises have more advantages, and their performance will also be better

this prediction may come true. On May 30, Zoomlion's first fleet of 80 ze360e excavators was sent to Inner Mongolia for delivery to customers. This is the largest single sales order obtained by Zoomlion earth moving machinery since its establishment, creating a single sales record of 200 sets in the excavator industry. In fact, export is also becoming a new profit growth point for leading enterprises such as Zoomlion and sany. In 2011, Sany international business revenue increased by 60.72%, far exceeding the domestic growth rate of 48.03%