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Capital increase, catalyzing the evolution of the market pattern of aerial work platform

capital increase, catalyzing the evolution of the market pattern of aerial work platform

China Construction Machinery Information 1 general situation

since 2012, the aerial work platform (hereinafter referred to as "AWP") industry has experienced seven years of rapid development. During this period, due to the entry of comprehensive host manufacturers and brands outside the industry; With the continuous efforts of traditional AWP manufacturers, the number of Lessors in the market is increasing significantly. In the regional market, the price difference based on technical barriers is still in the fluctuation stage. From the game in the early stage of market development to the final mature rationality, capital and channels are deeply influencing and determining the development direction of this market

according to the data of international aerial work platform Alliance (ipaf), China's AWP market has grown at an average annual rate of 36% since 2012. According to the latest research statistics, the domestic AWP sales volume in 2017 was about 1 About 80000 sets, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 50%; In 2018, the domestic AWP sales volume reached more than 29000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 60%. In 2019, without considering the special factors of some major customer purchases at the end of the year, the domestic industry sales volume is expected to reach 4.5% Million units, a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. By the end of 2019, it is estimated that the total domestic AWP ownership has exceeded 130000 units, accounting for about% of the global market, and the global AWP rental market has exceeded about 1.5 million units

after the rapid expansion, the brand pattern in the domestic AWP field has begun to take shape.

in the past two years, among the domestic AWP OEMs, in addition to the professional equipment suppliers such as Zhejiang Dingli and Hunan Xingbang who have been deeply involved in the industry for many years, the traditional construction machinery giants including XCMG, Lingong, Zoomlion and Liugong have also begun to make efforts in the aerial work platform market, At the same time, non-traditional construction machinery enterprises represented by BYD also began to parachute into the AWP market. Among them, the top five brands now almost form the first camp of domestic aerial work platforms, gradually opening the gap with the second echelon of main engine plants

from the perspective of sales scale, the total revenue of Zhejiang Dingli in the first three quarters of 2019 was 1.45 billion yuan, of which the domestic market revenue was 820million yuan; In 2018, the revenue of Hunan Xingbang reached US $115million, totaling RMB 810million. In 2019, the sales volume of Xingbang scissors is expected to be nearly 10000 units, and the annual revenue scale is expected to increase by more than 50% year-on-year, exceeding RMB 1.2 billion; XCMG's annual sales volume of scissors is expected to exceed 6000 sets, and the sales volume of arm type products is expected to exceed 1500 sets. The annual revenue target is to reach 1billion; Zoomlion, a new entrant in the industry, exhibited the product lineup of four series of type 21 shear forks and two series of type 4 boom at the Shanghai high altitude machinery exhibition at the end of October 2019. It is expected that the total sales volume in 2019 will be more than 700million

from the perspective of production capacity, Zhejiang has invested in the phase IV boom type plant relying on IPO fund-raising and subsequent refinancing. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the annual production capacity of 26000 shear forks, 6000 mast columns and 3200 boom type plants will be formed; XCMG currently has a planned capacity of 20000 shear forks and 3000 arm type; Zoomlion's planned shear fork capacity is 1 10000 sets, 3000 sets of arm type capacity; Hunan Xingbang has a planned capacity of 20000 shear forks and more than 2500 arm type in recent years; 25000 shear forks + arms are planned for temporary construction. Based on this calculation, if each manufacturer can really complete the capacity release, by the end of 2020 to the middle of 2021, several major domestic main engine manufacturers will form a total of 98000 shear forks, 1 50000 arm type production capacity. (Note: the production capacity will not be fully invested in China)

the competition is intense, and the entry of capital has changed the first part of lessors

by the end of 2018, there are about 900 domestic high-altitude operation platform lessors of a certain scale, of which the top three lessors' equipment accounts for 24.3% of the total equipment, and there are about 8 lessors with a fleet of more than 1000 aircraft, with equipment accounting for 34.3%, which is the same as the foreign structure, showing a "big head and long tail" state. By november2019, the number of domestic aerial work platform lessors has reached about 1600, of which more than 1000 aerial work platform lessors are still at the top of the industry pyramid, and most of the equipment is still divided by many small-scale lessors

among the top three leasing companies, Hongxin Jianfa successfully broke through 10000 units in 2018 and is expected to have about 15000 units by the end of 2019; Zhongneng United will have more than ten thousand sets of equipment in 2019; The leasing scale of XCMG Guanglian reached 7000 units by the end of 2018, and it is expected that the overall ownership scale will be close to 10000 units by the end of 2019. While Huatie emergency, the parent company of Zhejiang Bumblebee, has entered the industry for about half a year. The fleet has reached nearly 8000 units, and has laid out more than 40 points. It will soon March to 10000 units. In addition to the lessors listed in the table, Yongli construction machinery officially entered the high-altitude platform market in 2019. Only in August, it completed the opening of six bases nationwide, and purchased 500 Guinness jibs and 2000 Dingli shear forks, which is a great threat

compared with other engineering equipment, AWP equipment structure, service and technical level are relatively low, so AWP leaseholders are easier to use capital leverage to achieve rapid expansion

with the vigorous development of the aerial vehicle leasing market in recent years, a number of powerful large leasing companies have gradually emerged in the market. Manufacturers represented by Huatie emergency and Zhongneng United have achieved rapid expansion this year. Meanwhile, Hongxin Jianfa, an old leading leaseholder, is also unwilling to be outdone, relying on its own capital advantages to keep up with the expansion of the industry trend

starting from 2019, Huatie will take the aerial work platform leasing business as an important strategic development direction and gradually increase capital investment. On November 13, China Railway Emergency announced that due to the needs of business development, the wholly-owned subsidiary Bumblebee planned to add 1.2 billion yuan to invest in aerial work platforms. In addition, XCMG finance, Zoomlion Finance Leasing and chentai finance leasing newly handled financial leasing business, with the financing amount not exceeding 800million yuan. On December 4, the company announced that it planned to raise no more than 1billion yuan from non-public offering of shares, including 700million yuan to be invested in the upgrading project of aerial work platform and 300million yuan to repay bank loans

Zhongneng United also expanded rapidly relying on its financing advantages. Zhongneng was jointly established in 2016. In march2018, it reached a strategic financing cooperation of 250million yuan with Huayun golden leasing; In july2018, it obtained the pre-A round investment of tens of millions of yuan from shengjinda capital; In September, 2018, it obtained a round a investment of RMB 62.5 million from Buhu venture capital; In april2019, it obtained the round B equity financing of USD 50million led by source capital and followed by Buhu venture capital; In july2019, Zhongneng jointly announced that the financing reached 1.5 billion yuan, but the product cost was relatively high. According to the company's publicity, Zhongneng United has reached strategic cooperation with domestic and foreign equipment manufacturers (JLG, Lingong heavy machinery, Ou Lisheng, Xingbang), and the fleet size has exceeded 10000. Its network covers 20 provinces, 4 municipalities directly under the central government and 175 prefecture level cities in China, with 60 warehousing, logistics and service guarantee centers

the gap continues to expand, and the scale of the head lessors will enter the "10000 sets" mode

in combination with the financing/procurement plans of several leading lessors (only plans, there is the possibility of not necessarily implementing them), it is judged that in the next year, Zhongneng will jointly invest more than 1billion yuan in AWP equipment. Based on the calculation that the number of shear forks is 8:2, the average price of shear forks is 70000, and the average price of arm products is 450000, Zhongneng expects that the number of shear forks that may be purchased will exceed 5000, and that of arm products will exceed 1200. Considering that the company can also use leverage in terms of payment terms and other aspects, the funds the company has raised can actually leverage the purchase volume of more than 15000 units

similarly, we calculate the purchasing capacity of Huatie. The company's financing amount of 12+8=2billion can theoretically leverage the purchase volume of 10000 sets of equipment. If the Zhongneng and Huatie projects aim to break through 20000 sets of equipment in combination with the development requirements of China's plastic machinery industry, it is judged that Hongxin will also be prepared to expand its existing equipment. Based on this rough calculation, the total purchase demand of the head lessee may exceed 40000 units in the next two years

the top lessors have established cooperative relations with the top OEMs

on the other hand, considering the factors such as early-stage cooperation, procurement mode, equipment performance, financing convenience, business conditions, etc., the top lessors have established a more in-depth cooperation mode with the top OEMs. For example, Zhejiang Dingli signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Hongxin, Huatie handled new financial leasing business from XCMG finance and Zoomlion financial leasing, and Zhongneng signed an annual strategic cooperation agreement with Xingbang heavy industry

the overall rental price has declined, and the health of the industry is worrying

according to the data provided by joint leasing, the number of aerial work platforms leased for every $1billion of construction expenditure in the world in 2018 was 138; In the non resident market of Western Europe, the number of AWP products corresponding to every 1billion US dollars of construction expenditure exceeds 250; In North America, there are more than 700 sets

according to the GDP of China's domestic construction industry, the GDP of the domestic construction industry in 2018 was about 6.18 trillion yuan, about 0.878 trillion US dollars. Then, according to the average number in 2018, the number of leased aerial work platforms is about 220000. Considering the steady growth of the GDP of the construction industry in, the increase of the penetration rate of AWP products, and the overall medium and long-term level, we believe that the domestic AWP market has been in short supply for a long time

however, according to statistics, in 2019, the platform rent of each meter section declined nationwide in varying degrees. The rent of the 10m scissor platform with the largest amount of ownership has exceeded the "bottom line" in some large and medium-sized projects in some regions, and even Shanghai, which has the most mature leasing atmosphere, is not immune

records show that the overall rent of domestic aerial work platforms experienced a sharp decline in 2015. In, with the continuous improvement of AWP penetration rate in the domestic market, the market demand gradually expanded. Although the overall supply of the industry maintained rapid growth, the overall rent was basically stable. However, since 2019, on the one hand, due to the rapid expansion of production capacity at the supply side, and on the other hand, due to the business strategies of some large lessors, the overall rent of the cutting and forking equipment market has fallen sharply

in this case, the whole industry should pay attention to the pressure of the leading lessors' operating risks on the accounts receivable of the main engine plant. Taking the rapid development of the excavator industry in as an example, the excessively loose sales credit policy has greatly stimulated the downstream demand in the short term, but buried a large hidden danger of accounts receivable and inventory

learn from the past! It is hoped that as an industry practitioner, on the one hand, we should strictly control the risk of accounts receivable and strictly screen high-quality customers; The other is to reduce the possible market risks in the future through product diversification and sales destination market diversification. It is not ruled out that the industry will undergo a short-term adjustment after two years. Therefore, within the two-year period, companies that can achieve diversified product layout and overseas business layout can relatively resist industry risks and achieve long-term stable growth

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